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Geopolitical · geoeconomic · geotechnology · Toronto

Consulting and forecasts on the things that matter in the changing world order.

Strature advises organisations on geo-strategy and geo-business strategy, and measures their exposure to regulation, sanctions and policy where they actually operate.

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Exhibit H-1 · Against even odds · Canada
A C$1bn-plus stake by 31 October 2027: 43%, our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Probability that a named fund takes a new equity stake in a C$1bn-plus Canadian project by 31 October 2027, as registered in Strature Briefs Q 021, Edition 1.0, 28 Sep 2026. Percent.
With a government term16%
Without one27%
Either way43%
Probability, percent; our estimate, scored when it resolves
The reading

Both routes together stay short of even odds: the brief’s view is that a C$1bn-plus stake by the date is less likely than not.

SourceStrature Briefs Q 021, Edition 1.0, 28 Sep 2026, the answer sentence on its front page: 16% with a government term, 27% without, 43% together. How to read this plateThe accent marks the registered forecast as a whole; the dashed rule is even odds, the datum every probability is read against. Strature
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Strature Briefs: a published series, in general circulation.

The first brief, Strature Briefs Q 021, is in the library. Two layers are free to everyone; the full brief is sold to organisations.

Exhibit Q21-1 · Four counts Six of seven pledges: no placement found to 27 Sep 2026; no airport term or operating asset for sale found. Share of each count’s own total, evidence to 27 Sep 2026.
Pledges, no placement found6 of 7
Projects up 22–36%4 of 7
Airport terms0 of 6
Assets for sale0 of 4
SourceStrature Briefs Q 021, Edition 1.0, one-page sheet, p.1. Strature
Question brief28 Sep 2026

Can Canada turn promised capital into built projects?

Not quickly: a named fund taking a new equity stake in a C$1bn-plus Canadian project by 31 October 2027 is 16% likely with a government term, 27% without: 43% together, each our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Free: the one-page sheet and the executive read. The full brief is sold to organisations.

Strature BriefsSeries QNo. 021Edition 1.028 Sep 2026
Strature Advisory

Engagements for one organisation, under an engagement letter.

Geopolitical, geoeconomic and geotechnology advisory for a company, an investor or a board. Strature never recommends securities.

01Capability

Geo-strategy

Where to be, and where not to be, as the world order changes.

02Capability

Geo-business strategy

What the geopolitical picture means for one business and its footprint.

Strature Exposure · a worked case

Royal Bank of Canada: one edition, read end to end.

The edition assesses 41 changes that can reach RBC: six rules already in force, four comment periods closing within 30 days, and six more dated by 31 Dec 2026.

Restated from the edition’s summary, Strature Exposure, RBC, 28 Sep 2026

The regulations, bills, trade measures, sanctions and policies found for a company where it operates, weighted by where it earns its revenue, with every place not read printed as a gap, each with its official text and the options it opens. Re-issued as an edition.

See Strature Exposure Read the RBC case

RBC is the subject of the analysis, not a client. No endorsement by RBC is implied. Figures: edition of 28 Sep 2026, built from public sources.

Exhibit H-2 · Bars against a datum · RBC
Canada carries 62.8% of RBC’s revenue; the United States a quarter.
Share of total revenue by geographic segment, fiscal year ended 31 October 2025. Percent.
Canada62.8%
United States25.8%
Other international11.3%
Percent of total revenue
The reading

Canada alone is more than half of the bank’s revenue, so a Canadian rule carries more weight in its exposure picture than an American one, and one from elsewhere less again.

SourceRBC Annual Report 2025, Note 26, Results by business segment, geographic segments table, Consolidated Financial Statements, p.234. How to read this plateThe accent marks the part of Canada’s share that lies above half of revenue. Strature
The firm

Founder-led, from Toronto.

Milad Naeimi

Milad Naeimi

Founder and Principal, Strature

Milad Naeimi, Founder and Principal, Strature, built its method and platform to show companies how regulation, politics and sanctions reach their operations.

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