Dated, probabilistic calls on the events that matter, each scored when it resolves.

A forecast here is written so that it can be scored: a date, an observable and a number. Each names the event, the observable that decides it, the date by which it resolves, and the probability, which is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Each is registered before the fact and stays on the register, resolved or open, until it resolves.

A scenario set does the same for a decision that turns on several events at once: the distinct futures, what would have to be true for each, and the signs that tell them apart. For one organisation, forecasts and scenarios are engagement deliverables under an engagement letter, built around the decision that organisation faces: a forecast on one question, a scenario set, or a standing set of the organisation’s own questions, kept on its own register until each resolves. Forecasts also appear inside Strature Briefs, where they are the same for every reader.